STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
Rob Burgess joins us next. He is a Republican strategist and the former campaign manager of Asa Hutchinson's 2024 presidential run. Welcome back to the program, sir.
ROB BURGESS: Thanks so much for having me.
INSKEEP: What do you think about when you hear Barbara describe the divide among Republicans?
BURGESS: I mean, I think that she hit it right on the head, and I was trying to figure out if there's going to be anything for me to talk about during our segment.
INSKEEP: (Laughter).
BURGESS: She's exactly right, though, when she talks about the divisions within the conference and where those fall and exactly what the major concerns are within the Republican Party about how to make sure we keep our promise of making cuts and trying to rein spending in and be fiscally responsible while still trying to get something passed.
INSKEEP: I am thinking, particularly, about the Medicaid issue. There is a number of Republicans who've said, I want to save money, but we're not going to cut Medicaid benefits. The benefits are not going to be cut. That is what they've explicitly said. And then they face the thing that Barbara mentioned, this Congressional Budget Office finding that the changes in the House bill could take 8.6 million people off of Medicaid coverage. That's a hard reality to deal with if you've promised not to do that.
BURGESS: Sure, it's a hard reality to deal with, but we have to remember that Medicaid was always intended to be a...
INSKEEP: Rob, I don't know what just...
BURGESS: ...Safety net and not a permanent one. So for the first time...
INSKEEP: ... Rob something just - there, you're back, OK.
BURGESS: ...In history, we have more able-bodied adults staying on a safety net system as their primary tool of care than actually trying to go out, work, and receive benefits on their own. So when you start talking about any potential cuts, you're really not looking at cutting benefits from the people who need them the most. You're looking at cutting benefits from those who have the potential to go and get coverage a different way.
INSKEEP: You're arguing that there may be some people who can rightly and justly be denied Medicaid benefits?
BURGESS: I am arguing that. I mean, according to the GAO, there's tens of millions of people on the Medicaid system right now that shouldn't be, right? So, yes, while CBO - the Congressional Budget Office - might say 8.7 million might lose coverage, you know, the Government Accountability Office is saying there's tens of millions of people that are fraudulently using the system. And so it could actually end up saving money without necessarily cutting benefits for the people who need the most.
INSKEEP: Does it create a political problem because those millions of people - the GAO may feel that they unjustly have their benefits, but I imagine a lot of them feel it's perfectly legitimate that they get them and they don't want to lose them.
BURGESS: Sure. And, you know, at the end of the day, the American people ultimately will decide this back in the ballot box next November if they feel that they were unduly or wrongfully targeted, you know, but because they also saw that effect last November when they believed that the federal government had become weaponized against political opponents and they decided to reelect Donald Trump. You know, at the end of the day, this all comes back, though, to those factions that your reporter was talking about. And I personally don't think the Freedom Caucus has enough teeth anymore. The Freedom Caucus is not what it was back in the days of Jim Jordan and Mark Meadows. And this is, you know, a group of conservatives that were led astray by Bob Good in the last conference and have really become a little bit weaker than they should have ever intended to be. And so I'm not sure they necessarily have the sway to really demand too much when it comes to cuts on Medicaid. I think you're going to see the most negotiation power happening in the SALT deduction.
INSKEEP: Oh, let's talk about that. Mike Lawler is a lawmaker we expect to hear from later on this morning on this very program. And he is a New York lawmaker who has demanded that the deduction for state and local income taxes return or this bill can't have its vote. And I think there's several Republicans in that category - enough to sink the bill.
BURGESS: No, I think you're absolutely right. And that's the group that I would be more concerned about if I was the speaker. That's the group I'd be more concerned about if I was chairman of budget. Because, ultimately, those are the Republicans from the high-net-worth areas in the country that, one, it's very hard for a Republican elected in those states anyway. But, two, we still find a lot of our political donors in those states. And this SALT deduction has been a conversation going back to 2017. And, ultimately, the Republican Party, we did a good thing by saying, hey, you know what? We're going to extend the Trump 2017 tax cuts. But we cannot go ahead and also forget that if we don't reauthorize SALT deductions, we're going to be alienating the very people that helped put us back into the majority, and that could ultimately hurt our chances in the midterms.
INSKEEP: In about 20 seconds, do you think lawmakers might be likely to do what lawmakers often do, which is to decide that deficits don't really matter that much to voters, and they might as well just put in everything that they like and not worry too much about the deficit?
BURGESS: Well, as an American and a taxpayer, I sure as hell hope, no. But, ultimately, you know, that's what we see happens. They like to kick the can down the road and look at problems, not in the lens of, we need to get this done today, but we need to get it done five years from now.
INSKEEP: Rob Burgess, Republican strategist, thanks so much for your insights.
BURGESS: Thanks. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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