AYESHA RASCOE, HOST:
The next round of talks between Iran and the U.S. might take place in a few days after that nearly weeklong funeral held for the country's previous supreme leader wraps up. We've been hearing a lot about how the Trump administration feels about the memorandum of understanding it signed with Iran and how those talks are going, and they're saying it's all good. Here's Vice President JD Vance on "Fox News" on Tuesday.
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JD VANCE: We have all the cards in negotiation. We obviously want it to be successful. But even if it's not successful, we've accomplished the core mission, which is to ensure that the Iranians never have a nuclear weapon. In other words, it's a win-win outcome for the American people.
RASCOE: So how does Iran see things? Sanam Vakil is director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House, a London-based policy institute, and she joins us now. Thank you for being here.
SANAM VAKIL: Thank you for having me.
RASCOE: So how is this memorandum and the talks - I mean, you know, such as they are - being seen by Iran?
VAKIL: Well, the Iranian system - oftentimes referred to as the regime - survived the war, came out feeling quite bolstered. And the talks and the memorandum of understanding offer Iran sanctions relief and an opportunity to negotiate a more permanent deal with the Trump administration.
For ordinary Iranians, it's been a very extraordinary and tough number of months. There were protests in January that were just violently suppressed. We still don't have accurate reporting on how many people were murdered.
And then, of course, there was the war, which created so much anxiety and continues to pass on huge amount of economic pain. I think people are relieved that the war is over for now. There's just not a huge amount of confidence that a deal will be seen at the end of this.
RASCOE: So that's the public, but how about within the Iranian government? Are there skeptics about negotiating with the Trump administration?
VAKIL: Yes, of course. This is a system that isn't currently being represented by one clear individual. There is a new supreme leader. He hasn't been seen. It is unlikely that he will be seen over the course of these funeral processions in the coming days. The system is divided in terms of the direction of travel. There is support for the negotiations, but there is a lot of mistrust of the Trump administration. The Iranians have been attacked multiple times while negotiating with the Trump administration. So I think while they are pursuing negotiations, they're also perhaps preparing for what could be another round of conflict.
RASCOE: Well, I mean, with that level of distrust, how - like, how much would a deal mean, or how do you reach a meaningful deal? Because as you said, would Iran even trust the U.S. and Israel to stick to the terms?
VAKIL: Yeah. That's a good question. I think they're going to give these negotiations a good run. They're supposed to be concluded within 60 days or a 30-day extension. I imagine that it'll be extended beyond that because they are discussing some very difficult issues from the nuclear program to reopening the Strait of Hormuz for safe passage and sanctions relief. But if they don't get that deal, they might get something a bit smaller or a bit more short term. This is all going to be just transactional and buying time, and it's not going to solve the underlying issues. Getting a proper deal will require dedicated negotiations over many months.
RASCOE: Well, as someone who is watching this situation very closely, what are you looking for in terms of signs that things are progressing, or whether there - or whether things are regressing?
VAKIL: Well, I'm looking for continued volatility and conflict in the Strait of Hormuz or in Lebanon, which is also part of the negotiations. That volatility and lobbing, you know, strikes back and forth is a obvious negative sign. And continuation of negotiations is an important, constructive signal. There's reportedly going to be another round of negotiations after the funeral ends next week, but, you know, that could be delayed. The longer the negotiation process drags out is problematic. And those negotiations need to be sustained. They need to be just locked in a room until this is resolved.
RASCOE: That's Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House. Thank you so much for speaking with us today.
VAKIL: Thank you.
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