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Michigan's Tenth Congressional race could determine which party controls Congress

democrat and republican

Absentee ballots are on their way to more than a million Michigan voters. 

The Tenth Congressional district is among several Michigan races that may determine whether Republicans or Democrats control Congress after the mid-term elections. 
 
The district that represents parts of Macomb and Oakland Counties has leaned Republican in recent years. President Donald Trump won the Tenth district by six points in 2024. 

But Republican strength has ebbed in the Tenth district and now the open congressional seat, being vacated by John James as he runs for Michigan governor, is considered a toss-up heading into November.
 
On a Saturday morning earlier this month, Democrat Christina Hines rallied volunteers at a St. Clair Shores campaign office as they prepared to knock on doors to promote her campaign.

“We are going to do it with joy and love in our hearts cause we’re not shaming anybody into voting for us. We are winning them over with what we offer,” Hines told the volunteers before they spread out into nearby neighborhoods.

After working in the Washtenaw and Wayne County prosecutor’s offices for a decade, Hines is making her second run for elected office. Back in 2024 she ran, and lost, the race for Macomb County prosecutor.

Hines says she’s running to lower healthcare costs, guard voting rights, and protect reproductive freedom. She sees the economy as a key issue in the district.

“I just really think that both parties have left working families behind,” said Hines, “People are really really struggling all over our district. And it doesn’t matter if you make $15,000 a year or $115 a year, people are really struggling.”

On the Republican side, GOP primary voters picked a very familiar name. 

Michael Bouchard won the primary. But he’s not the Mike Bouchard you may be thinking of.

This Michael Bouchard is the son of the long-time Oakland County sheriff. The younger Bouchard was, until recently, a member the U.S. Army, having served in the 82nd and 101st airborne divisions.

As a way of introducing himself to voters, the former Army Captain took the stage at the recent Republican National Convention in Dallas.

“Hard work, a belief in God and service to our country were the foundations they built my life on,” Bouchard told the convention audience of his Michigan upbringing.

Bouchard identifies several issues important to him including national security and border enforcement, boosting American manufacturing and increasing parental choice in education. But there is one issue he stresses.

“A storm is approaching…that must be defeated before it leaves this country in ruins,” said Bouchard, “Like every other it has touched, far left policies under socialism are the poison that will either be defeated by this generation or it will haunt the next.”

David Dulio is a political science professor at Oakland University and the director of the Center for Civic Engagement.  

He says the brand name Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard has established could be a factor in the race.

“Names that translate. Names that people know…are more likely to be successful,” said Dulio, “And it’s because they’ve got a built in advantage that some candidates don’t have.   Where people just know who they are.  Know their name.  and that brings some comfort.”

As voting begins, Christina Hines and Michael Bouchard are hustling to get their messages to Tenth congressional district voters.

Meanwhile, their campaign managers are hustling just as hard to get more yard signs bearing their candidate’s name before the eyes of voters.

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Steve Carmody has been a reporter for Michigan Public since 2005. Steve previously worked at public radio and television stations in Florida, Oklahoma and Kentucky, and also has extensive experience in commercial broadcasting.