Polls of battle ground states may have showed a likely victory for Hillary Clinton before Tuesday’s election. But Western Michigan University Political Science Professor Peter Wielhouwer says the trend was headed in Donald Trump’s direction in the days leading up to November 8th.
Wielhouwer and John Clark also a Political Science Professor at Western joined WMUK’s Gordon Evans to discuss Tuesday’s election. Clark says the polls also indicate that people who weren’t sure if they were going to vote, and decided to cast a ballot. And he says more of them decided to vote for Trump. Clark says even a small number of people in a small number of states could influence the outcome.
Polling
Wielhouwer says public polls may have been off because they anticipated the electorate to be similar to the voters who cast ballots in 2008 and 2012. He says it turned out that more Republican voters went to the polls on Tuesday. Clark says in many ways this was a “base election” in which both parties try to make sure that their base turns out and votes. He says that may not have been a conscious strategy. Clark says it was a “ridiculously close” election that broke Trump’s way in the Electoral College.
Michigan Visits
Both candidates made their way to Michigan in the last days of the campaign. Wielhouwer says that demonstrates that both parties’ internal polls showed different data than public surveys. Clark says the polls try to determine which voters are going to turn out. He says the visits by candidates and surrogates are designed to ensure that their voters make it to the polls. Wielhouwer says the parties spend a lot of money on polling, and are likely to have better information than media organizations can get through polls they commission.
Political Shift?
Tuesday’s election marked the first time since 1988 that a Republican has won Michigan’s electoral votes. Wielhouwer says union support for Hillary Clinton was not as strong as it has been for past Democratic candidates. Clark says Michigan had been considered a battleground state in previous Presidential campaigns. He says Republicans have won statewide for races such as governor, and he says the shift was not that great. Clark says Democrats usually have a turnout advantage in Presidential election years. But he says Michigan will likely continue to be a swing state in the future.
